The Second Amendment to the United States Constitution states that people have the right to keep and bear arms in the US. Though this right isn’t limitless and without exceptions, a large number of Americans possess firearms nowadays. This number has become bigger in the last couple of years, peaking in 2020, and always during the Holiday season.
Naturally, as the number of people buying firearms becomes larger, the demand for rifle ammo has also increased. Many gun stores reported their shelves being empty back in June 2021, though the manufacturers stated that they’re producing as much as they can.
If you’re curious to find out why there has been such an increase in interest in firearms in the last couple of years and why the holiday season means big business for the firearms industry, keep on reading.
How are firearms sales measured?
This is a complicated question. The US doesn’t take notes on how many firearms are bought each year. However, each time someone is interested in buying a firearm, the seller, known as a Federal Firearms Licensee, contacts the NICS (National Instant Criminal Background Check System). The NICS then performs a background check on the buyer, making sure they’re eligible to purchase a gun.
The NICS keep records of their search and publish data on the number of searches performed by day, month, year, state, and type.
However, not every person that enters a gun store actually buys a weapon. Also, some states like Kentucky run monthly permit checks and rechecks that need to be stripped out before calculating an estimate on the number of bought firearms.
Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF), a consulting firm based in Greenville, South Carolina, created a methodology based on which they calculate the number of sales, which is something we’ll be using in this article
So, what do statistics say?
According to the NICS, the number of background checks has been increasing since 1998, when the NICS first started compiling their data. For instance, in January 1999 there were 591,355 background checks. In 2010, that number doubled, reaching 1,119,229 background checks.
Of course, not all background checks are likely sales. However, it’s obvious that Americans are interested in purchasing firearms now more than ever.
COVID-19 pandemics – impact on the firearm industry
The last two years have also been very interesting. Ever since the COVID-10 pandemics kicked in, the number of background checks and likely purchases has spiked up.
Looking at the NICS report, you can see that there were 28,369,750 background checks performed in 2019. In 2020, that number increased to 39,695,315, while we had a bit fewer background checks performed – 38,876,673.
Naturally, the same trend was seen in terms of likely purchases. SAAF estimated that 1,9 million firearm units were sold in October 2020, which is 65% more than in October 2019. Similar estimates were made in October 2021 – while the number of likely purchases decreased by 20,1% since October 2020, it was still increased by 31,8% compared to the number of likely sales in October 2019.
Holiday season
Regardless of whether you’re on the giving or the receiving end, don’t you just love gifts? And, is there a better time of the year than during the holiday season to buy your favorite person a gun? Clearly, there isn’t, and statistics agree with us.
As you can tell from the table below, the number of likely purchases tends to increase in October, November, and December, as opposed to September and January when they tend to go back to normal. The only exception is January 2021 – the spike continued in January as well, most likely due to the confirmation and inauguration of Joe Biden as the new president.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
| September | 961,399 | 1,064,579 | 1,8 | 1,45 |
| October | 1,046,087 | 1,159,277 | 1,9 | 1,53 |
| November | 1,404,729 | 1,423,869 | 2,1 | 1,7 |
| December | 1,603,700 | 1,671,775 | 2,1 | 1,9 |
| January next year | 1,039,187 | 1,273,531 | 2,2 | 1,3 |
There are also some specific days, such as Black Friday, when we can notice an increase in sales. According to the NICS and their list of Top 10 Highest Days/Weeks, Black Friday in 2017, 2019, and 2021 are all on the list with about 200,000 background checks each.
Wrapping it up…
As you can tell, the number of likely sales depends on various factors. While pandemics isn’t something that happens all the time, the holiday season is regularly on the menu, so the number of sales always spikes up at that time of the year.
We know the holiday season is over, but if you’re still planning on making a purchase, we advise you to get familiar with the safety guidelines:
- Treat the gun as if it’s loaded at all times and keep your finger off the trigger.
- Don’t point the gun at anything you don’t want to shoot.
- Keep it unloaded.
- Be aware of your target and what’s beyond it – you can’t take back the shot.
- Learn all characteristics of your gun.
- Use the right ammunition.
- If your gun doesn’t fire when the trigger is pulled, keep it still for a couple of seconds and then handle it with care.
- Pay attention to your surroundings, so you don’t trip and shoot something you don’t want.
Remember to follow the safety guidelines at all costs, so you don’t hurt yourself or anyone else.
